DEEP STRIKE
OSINT · Infrastructure

Dynamics and Impact of Incidents

Tracking changes in oil refining, storage, and logistics based on confirmed events and open sources.

Confirmed strikes

122

↑ +21 over 30 days
Facilities hit

45

↑ +7 over 30 days
Maximum range

1,984 km

Repeat-strike record

9

Oil refining

Capacity coverage

305Mtpa
Total RF refinery capacity
100%
275Mtpa
Capacity in monitoring base
90%
246Mtpa
Capacity of struck refineries
81%
Total RF refinery capacity is an industry estimate. Affected figures cover confirmed strikes only.

Capacity reserve

Unaffected share of total Russian refinery capacity

19%reserve
Reserve capacity
59 Mtpa

of 305 Mtpa RF total

Struck facilities

Comparison of struck facilities against total in the database

45/ 49

92%

of facilities struck

Struck (45)Untouched (4)
Monthly

Strike tempo

Strike count by month.

Total strikes

122

Peak20·May 26

Toggle view: monthly count or cumulative total. Period filter narrows the window.
Reach

Strike depth over time

Strike reach by month.

Record reach

1,984 km

deepest confirmed strike

Distances are geodesic to the nearest Ukraine-controlled point.

Facilities under the most pressure

Ranked by cumulative severity (Σ) of confirmed strikes.

  • 01

    Туапсинский НПЗ

    offline
    Σ 35

    Refinery·Krasnodar Krai·9 strikes·≈ 347 d. downtime

  • 02

    Ильский НПЗ

    reduced capacity
    Σ 30

    Refinery·Krasnodar Krai·8 strikes·≈ 148 d. downtime

  • 03

    Саратовский НПЗ

    reduced capacity
    Σ 28

    Refinery·Saratov Oblast·9 strikes·≈ 80 d. downtime

  • 04

    Рязанский НПЗ

    offline
    Σ 24

    Refinery·Ryazan Oblast·6 strikes·≈ 141 d. downtime

  • 05

    Киришский НПЗ

    offline
    Σ 22

    Refinery·Leningrad Oblast·6 strikes·≈ 162 d. downtime

  • 06

    Афипский НПЗ

    reduced capacity
    Σ 21

    Refinery·Krasnodar Krai·7 strikes·≈ 56 d. downtime

  • 07

    Волгоградский НПЗ

    reduced capacity
    Σ 17

    Refinery·Volgograd Oblast·5 strikes·≈ 76 d. downtime

  • 08

    Феодосийский морской нефтяной терминал

    offline
    Σ 17

    Terminal·occupied Crimea·4 strikes·≈ 129 d. downtime

Facility status is an editorial assessment from open sources.

Mix by type and operator

Strike share across infrastructure categories and corporate groups.

By facility type

66%

Refineries

  • Refineries8166%
  • Oil depots1411%
  • Terminals1311%
  • Petrochemicals108%
  • Pipelines43%

By operator

49%

Rosneft / Bashneft

  • Rosneft / Bashneft4249%
  • Gazprom group1113%
  • Transneft1012%
  • Lukoil910%
  • KNGK Group89%
  • Surgutneftegaz67%
Transneft and Rosrezerv are listed separately — logistics ring, not refining.

Model notes

Capacity shares are computed weekly from confirmed strikes on refineries with known nameplate (Mtpa). Downtime windows use reported or severity-derived repair estimates; compounded loss crystallizes after repeated or critical hits and aligns with editorial facility status (degraded/offline). Percentages are weighted by nameplate — not a count of facilities.

Distances are geodesic, measured from each facility to the nearest point on the current Ukraine-controlled boundary — independent of flight paths or delivery means.